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Home Predict City How to play Predict City

How to play Predict City

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How does it work?

The goal to achieve here is to see if you could predict market movement in a daily basis.  Every day you make predictions about currency pairs (e.g. EURUSD) and equity index (e.g., FTSE100).  You need to predict whether it will go UP or DOWN from the price level at the time of your prediction till the next market closing.  If you making prediction during a trading day, the next market closing time will be 4:30pm UK time.  For non-trading day, it will be the end of the next trading day.  We use the same closing time of equity market for FX market although FX market trading nearly around the clock.

Every day, prediction freezes at 4:20pm 10 minutes before the market close.  To encourage early prediction and reward correct prediction with large margin, for those who have correct prediction on a given index/currency we reward the top three players with 3, 2 and multiple of their bets (call it Experts Gain).  The top three are determined by raking the signed predicted price change in a descending order i.e., the players who predict a price change direction correctly and have the largest price changes between his/her vote and the closing price will rank number 1.

For example, if the FTSE100 closed at 6000 (Monday 10 Jan 2010) and there are five votes on its up and down after 430pm today and before 4:20pm tomorrow in the following orders and details:

 

Voted time

Price at bet

Predict

VD

Price at close

Correct?

return%

Rank

VD changes

10 Jan 2007 5:00pm

6001

Up

1

6020

1

0.32%

1

1*3=3

11 Jan 2007 9:00am

6010

Down

1

6020

0

-0.17%

-1

11 Jan 2007 12:00am

6013

UP

3

6020

1

0.12%

2

3*2=6

11 Jan 2007 15:00am

6026

Up

6

6020

0

-0.10%

-6

11 Jan 2007 14:00am

6025

Down

5

6020

1

0.08%

3

5*1=5

 

What do I do to participate?

  1. Register. Click here, Make sure you check your email after registration.
  2. Log in and go to the PredictCity page and select the one you want to predict.
  3. Select your choice and number of virtual dollar (VD) you want to bet on your prediction.  The rule regarding VD is very simple.  Everyone will be allocated 100 vd in their account during registration.  If your prediction is correct, you gain an additional amount of VD that you bet on.  If your prediction is wrong, you lose what you bet on.  More complicate and sophisticate rules can be derived but for simplicity we keep it this way.  If you come to my Market Microstructure Lectures you will learn more about market designs and their effects on trading.

 

How to know how well I am doing?

A report will sent to you daily when the market close if you have predictions on that day. For overall performance once you login, on the right hand column there is a summary of your performance and a user menu where you can see your details and votes.

 

Please note that it is still under development some of the function may not be stable.  If you have questions and comments, please post a comment here or send me an email.

© Charlie Cai

http://www.charliexcai.info

 

Last Updated ( Friday, 28 January 2011 13:32 )  

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